Last September I reviewed the statistics available at that time from UCAS for post-graduate teacher preparation courses. UCAS has now published the end of cycle reports for the 2016-17 cycle. In September, I commented that ‘what is especially worrying is the level of reported ‘conditional placed’ applicants in the September figures; as high as 20% in some subjects.’
With the new data now available, it is now possible to track what appears to have happened to these ‘conditional placed applicants’? The good news is that many seem to have migrated into the ‘placed’ column rather than disappeared into the ‘other’ group that includes those rejected. I assume that this means most were able to meet with the conditions placed on their offer, whether the skills test, degree class or some other requirement. Overall, the number of placed applicants increased between September 2017 statistics and the end of cycle report by 3,090. That is about 60% of the conditionally placed applicants in the September statistics.
There are significant differences between the types of providers in how important converting ‘conditional placed offers’ to ‘placed’ applicants is in the overall scheme of things.
|Primary||Placed Sept 2017||Placed End of Cycle||Difference||% Increase|
|SCHOOL DIRECT FEE||2970||3350||380||13%|
|SCHOOL DIRECT SALARY||1330||1610||280||21%|
|Secondary||Placed Sept 2017||Placed End of Cycle||Difference||% Increase|
|SCHOOL DIRECT FEE||3180||3760||580||18%|
|SCHOOL DIRECT SALARY||750||960||210||28%|
Source: UCAS September 2017 and End of Cycle Report
What is also interesting is to compare the End of Cycle number with the DfE’s ITT census for 2017 published in November.
|Primary||Placed End of Cycle||ITT Census 2017||Difference|
|SCHOOL DIRECT FEE||3350||3410||60|
|SCHOOL DIRECT SALARY||1610||1705||95|
|Secondary||Placed End of Cycle||ITT Census 2017||Difference|
|SCHOOL DIRECT FEE||3760||3870||110|
|SCHOOL DIRECT SALARY||960||1080||120|
Sources: UCAS End of Cycle Report and DfE ITT Census
By the time of the census, higher education appeared to have lost applicants, but all other routes reported more than through UCAS. This discrepancy merits further investigation to understand whether some routes are by-passing the UCAS system, perhaps for late applications?
What isn’t present in these figures is a breakdown by subject of acceptance rates. However we do know that of the 41,700 applicants with a domicile in England, 24,870 or 60% were accepted.
There were some interesting questions to be asked about regional acceptance rates
|By UK domicile region||PLACED||ALL||% PLACED|
|YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER||2490||4320||58%|
Source: UCAS End of Cycle Report
Why was the percentage so high in the South West and so low in London, where teachers are really needed?
It would be really helpful if more of this data was made widely available, especially on a subject by subject basis for applicants and not just applications as the different number of applications that applicants may make can distort the data.
However, with the current cycle looking worse than the 2017 cycle, what happens over the next six months is going to be of great interest to everyone interested in teacher supply.