London weighting for trainees?

Yesterday, I wrote about my initial views on the latest data about applications for teacher preparation courses starting in 2016. The data excludes Teach First, because that scheme does not report into the central admissions process. I noted that there had been an increase across the board in offers made following an increase in both applications – candidates may make up to three applications – and in applicants for courses in England.

I have now had more time to consider the data and can split the figures provided yesterday into three groups of subjects based on the evidence and trends over the past few years. There are some subjects where I expect it should be possible to recruit enough applicants to meet the number required by the government. These are in;

Languages
Physical Education
History
English
Chemistry

In the following subjects it is possible that the target will be met, but the data isn’t conclusive either way:

Music
IT
Business studies
Biology
In the following subjects, more work will be needed if the target 
is to be reached in 2016 based on the present evidence:
Religious Education
Geography
Design & Technology
Art
Mathematics
Physics.

In Art, the failure to reach the total may not mean a shortage unless vacancy levels pick up in 2017 over the levels seen in 2015 and early 2016. In English, although the target should be met, questions remain about whether the target is high enough to meet demand from all schools: time will tell.

Across both phases and all types of courses there have been increased levels of offers, with double the offer level for School Direct Salaried places in the primary sector over January 2015 and an even larger growth in School Direct fee courses in primary.

However, some of this may be due to higher percentages of offer being made. The most worrying figure is that applications by provider region for London only totalled 11,370 in January, for places in both phases, compared with 12,50 in January 2015. In reality, this means an additional 200 additional applicants in London so far this round across all types of provision except Teach First. On the face of these figures, many of the additional applicants are not making full use of their choices. Is this a sign that not providing extra funds for London trainees is beginning to have an impact on where potential teachers are prepared to train and then to work. In view of the recruitment challenge, I hope not, but it might be worth investigating this issue further. Has the growth been in applications to School Direct Salaried provision in London or for all types of courses?

We now enter the period when final year undergraduates tend to concentrate more on their end of course examinations that applying for teaching courses, so the behaviour of applicants over the next few months will be of especial interest. This is especially the case in those subjects where, unless more applicants are forthcoming, there could still be recruitment issues for schools in 2017.

 

 

 

 

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2 thoughts on “London weighting for trainees?

  1. Don’t forget that the whole process has been massively skewed by the ‘no allocations’ model this year. In any subject that might reach national targets, there has been a pressure to lower standards. This is because in previous years a provider faced with a decision about a marginal applicant has only been trying to decide whether or not they will get a better applicant if they wait. This year, they know that additional offers mean additional places and hence additional fees, and waiting might mean the NCTL closing the subject before a better applicant is available. Given the precarious nature of many university PGCE courses I’m pretty sure that whilst some providers have been able to resist this pressure, others will have taken the opportunity to increase their numbers at some risk to quality of NQTs. More on the tragedy of the commons here https://dodiscimus.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/crunch-time-for-teacher-training-recruitment-bear-or-bull/ and here https://ioelondonblog.wordpress.com/2015/11/16/the-tragedy-of-the-commons-how-the-government-abandoned-the-pursuit-of-teacher-quality/

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